CALENDAR VS. WEEKS TO EXPIRATION LIVESTOCK BASIS FORECASTS: WHICH IS BETTER?

The ability to accurately forecast basis is crucial to risk management strategies employed by many agribusiness firms. Previous research has examined how to effectively use basis forecasts and what factors affect basis, but literature focusing on forecasting basis is sparse. This research evaluates the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar approach, when forecasting feeder cattle, live cattle, and hog basis. Furthermore, the optimal number of past year's basis levels to include in making basis predictions is evaluated in an out-of-sample framework. Absolute basis forecasts errors are generated for all three commodities and evaluated to determine the signifcance of the two issues mentioned above. Results indicate that basis forecasters should consider using three-year historical averages for feeder cattle and four-year historical averages for live cattle and lean hogs when making basis forecasts. Furthermore, the use of a time-to-expiration method of calculating historical average basis results in very little improvement in basis prediction accuracy compared to the calendar approach.livestock prices, basis, hedging, basis forecasts, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

LIVESTOCK BASIS FORECASTS: HOW BENEFICIAL IS THE INCLUSION OF CURRENT INFORMATION?

Successful risk management strategies for agribusiness firms are contingent on the ability to accurately forecast basis. There has been substantial research on the actual use of basis forecasts, yet little research has been conducted on actually forecasting basis. This study evaluates the effect incorporating current basis information into a historical-average-based-forecast has on forecasting accuracy when forecasting live cattle and feeder cattle basis. Furthermore, the optimal weight to place on this current information is evaluated in an out-of-sample framework. Root mean squared errors are generated for both commodities and evaluated to determine the significance of these issues. Results suggest that livestock basis forecasters should consider incorporating a proportion of the difference in current basis and the historical average of the current week when making their projections. The optimal amount of current information to include declines as the time interval between the week the forecast is being made and the week being forecasted increases.livestock prices, hedging, basis forecasts, current information, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

Improving Cattle Basis Forecasting

Successful risk management strategies for agribusiness firms based on futures and options contracts are contingent on their ability to accurately forecast basis. This research addresses three primary questions as they relate to basis forecasting accuracy: (a) What is the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar-date approach? (b) What is the optimal number of years to include in calculations when forecasting livestock basis using historical averages? and (c) What is the effect of incorporating current basis information into a historical-average-based forecast? Results indicate that use of the time-to-expiration approach has little impact on forecast accuracy compared to using a simple calendar approach, but forecast accuracy is improved by incorporating at least a portion of current basis information into basis forecasts.basis, basis forecasts, cattle prices, current information, hedging, Livestock Production/Industries,

Associative and repetition priming with the repeated masked prime technique: No priming found

Wentura and Frings (2005) reported evidence of subliminal categorical priming on a lexical decision task, using a new method of visual masking in which the prime string consisted of the prime word flanked by random consonants and random letter masks alternated with the prime string on successive refresh cycles. We investigated associative and repetition priming on lexical decision, using the same method of visual masking. Three experiments failed to show any evidence of associative priming, (1) when the prime string was fixed at 10 characters (three to six flanking letters) and (2) when the number of flanking letters were reduced or absent. In all cases, prime detection was at chance level. Strong associative priming was observed with visible unmasked primes, but the addition of flanking letters restricted priming even though prime detection was still high. With repetition priming, no priming effects were found with the repeated masked technique, and prime detection was poor but just above chance levels. We conclude that with repeated masked primes, there is effective visual masking but that associative priming and repetition priming do not occur with experiment-unique prime-target pairs. Explanations for this apparent discrepancy across priming paradigms are discussed. The priming stimuli and prime-target pairs used in this study may be downloaded as supplemental materials from mc.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental. © 2009 The Psychonomic Society, Inc

Structural change in forward contracting costs for Kansas wheat

Farmers use forward contracts to eliminate adverse price and basis movements prior to harvest. Since late 2007, the local basis for Kansas wheat has changed dramatically relative to historic levels, causing greater risk exposure for elevators o ffering forward contracts. The result has been an increase in the cost of forward contracting paid by farmers from $0.086 per bushel to$0.327 per bushel. The factors driving this increase in costs are basis volatility, wheat futures harvest price, the information available in the market as harvest approaches, and realized returns to the elevator from forward contracting in previous years

Coupling Control Variates for Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We show that Markov couplings can be used to improve the accuracy of Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations in some situations where the steady-state probability distribution is not explicitly known. The technique generalizes the notion of control variates from classical Monte Carlo integration. We illustrate it using two models of nonequilibrium transport

Luchas costeñas por los derechos territoriales y el control de los emergentes espacios mediáticos de Nicaragua

Este artículo trata de las respuestas mediáticas a la crisis actual en la Costa Caribe de Nicaragua y los retrocesos a las luchas regionales por la autonomía y los derechos a la tierra. Proporciona un panorama detallado del actual conflicto en el Caribe Norte, en particular cómo las acciones violentas de los colonos ilegales están acelerando la inseguridad y la degradación ambiental y cómo organizaciones de derechos humanos como CEJUDCHAN están utilizando espacios como YouTube para responder a esta situación. También esboza las luchas por el pueblo Rama Kriol en el Caribe Sur en contra del canal interoceánico. A partir del concepto de sociología de ausencias de Boaventura de Sousa Santos, el trabajo explora la inacción, la indiferencia y el engaño del Gobierno, así como la producción, distribución y visibilidad de los medios de comunicación de base. This article explores media representations of the current crisis on the Caribbean Coast of Nicaragua and the setbacks to regional struggles for autonomy and land rights posed by this crisis. It provides a detailed analysis of the current conflict in the North Caribbean region, and focuses in particular on how the violent actions of illegal settlers are accelerating insecurity and environmental degradation there, and how organizations such as CEJUDCHAN are using media spaces like YouTube to respond to and intervene in this situation. It also outlines the Rama Kriol people’s struggles against new plans for an interoceanic canal in the South Caribbean. We draw on Boaventura de Sousa Santos’ concept of a “sociology of absences” to analyze both the Nicaraguan government’s inaction, indifference and deceit in the face of indigenous and campesino opposition, and popular practices of oppositional media production and circulation

Advance Access publication December 14

In this paper, we discuss an estimator for average treatment effects (ATEs) known as the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator. This estimator has attractive theoretical properties and only requires practitioners to do two things they are already comfortable with: (1) specify a binary regression model for the propensity score, and (2) specify a regression model for the outcome variable. Perhaps the most interesting property of this estimator is its so-called ''double robustness.'' Put simply, the estimator remains consistent for the ATE if either the propensity score model or the outcome regression is misspecified but the other is properly specified. After explaining the AIPW estimator, we conduct a Monte Carlo experiment that compares the finite sample performance of the AIPW estimator to three common competitors: a regression estimator, an inverse propensity weighted (IPW) estimator, and a propensity score matching estimator. The Monte Carlo results show that the AIPW estimator has comparable or lower mean square error than the competing estimators when the propensity score and outcome models are both properly specified and, when one of the models is misspecified, the AIPW estimator is superior

Developing Interprofessional Teams using High Fidelity Resuscitation

Interprofessional simulations using scenarios, megacodes, algorithms, and high fidelity equipment provide a closer approximation to what clinicians are likely to face as a team in the actual resuscitation of a newborn infant